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Foundational essays, strategic forecasts, and practical frameworks for understanding the future before it arrives.

Yes, it’s possible to predict the future.

I get asked this question all the time, and my answer rarely satisfies people. If you have the right data and enough of it, and you’ve built a solid model, you can absolutely predict outcomes. These days, with ever-powerful computer systems, you can ingest a vast amount of data, run tons of simulations, and get probabilities on the other end.

The questions I get hired to answer sound impossible until you see the data behind them.

• Which US companies will see the biggest productivity gains from physical AI over the next decade, and why?

• What’s likely to make your current business model obsolete by 2031?

• Which policy choices will decide whether US AI, semiconductor, and biotechnology stay globally competitive?

• Which industries are about to become far more — or far less — insurable as climate, cyber, and geopolitical risk compound?

Every one of those questions is answerable with a good methodology, data and a model. Not a hunch.

I can do that. But given the volatility and rate of change, you’ll need to get in a habit of updating your priors. Which is to say: one-time predictions are useless without continual monitoring.

Convergence is where I do my continual monitoring in public. The weak signals, the system collisions, and the forecasts where technology, capital, geopolitics, climate, science, and human behavior collide and rewrite who holds power and what holds value.

So this is where I keep them. It’s more provisional than my books and more personal than our reports at FTSG. What you’ll find here is what I’d say to you over a meal, but definitely not in a polished deliverable.

Some of what I flag here will turn out to be noise. I write forecasts and will need to update them as needed. Occasionally (ok, often) I get irritated at business and government leaders. And, given that I keep one toe in Hollywood, I sometimes take side quests from reality into sci-fi (but you’ll know that when it’s happening).

Everything is free. If the work is valuable to you and you want to support it, just let your colleagues know. This work won’t sit behind a paywall.

Subscribe, and I’ll send you the future while it’s still early enough to act on.